The news hasn't happened yet.
Tomorrow's edition. Generated by AI. Sourced from markets.
Prediction markets on Polymarket give a 49% chance that President Donald Trump will leave office before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, implying a 51% probability he remains in power through the game's expected launch window. With over $706,000 wagered on the outcome, traders are evenly split on one of the most unconventional political bets of the year.
Polymarket traders give Bitcoin a 36% chance of trading above $66,000 on July 28, 2026, implying a 64% probability it will remain below that threshold, according to the only prediction market with data on this event.
Prediction markets on Polymarket give a 50% probability that Bitcoin will hit $1 million before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, currently slated for 2026, with over $4.7 million in trading volume reflecting significant interest in this speculative race.
Prediction markets are signaling a near-certain decline in UK retail sales for the month-on-month reading due by August 2026, with Kalshi traders placing a 98% probability on a negative outcome, though data is limited to a single platform.
Prediction market traders give OpenAI a mere 5% chance of reaching a $900 billion valuation by the end of July, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event.
Prediction market traders see a 97% chance that the U.S. Supreme Court will not accept a case involving sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the question with $948,000 in volume.
Polymarket traders see a narrow 51% chance that OpenAI’s GPT-6 will launch before Rockstar Games’ Grand Theft Auto VI, with over $689,000 wagered on the outcome as of today.
Traders on Polymarket give Darja Vidmanova a 64% chance of defeating Marina Bassols Ribera in the Memphis Classic, with $11,000 in volume wagered on the match outcome.
Tomorrow's paper, today. Delivered free to your inbox every morning.