Polymarket traders have priced Alec Pierce's trade probability at just 1%, reflecting a near-consensus view that the third-year wide receiver will not be moved before the resolution date. The $418,000 in volume on the contract indicates active interest, but the overwhelming majority of bets are on the 'No' side, effectively ruling out a trade as a likely outcome.
No other prediction platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—offer contracts on this event, limiting cross-platform comparison. The absence of recent news headlines or trade rumors further supports the market's assessment, as no external catalysts have emerged to shift expectations. Pierce, a 2022 second-round pick, has shown flashes of potential but has not yet secured a breakout role in Indianapolis's offense, which may explain the lack of trade speculation.
While a trade remains theoretically possible—especially if Pierce's performance improves or the Colts' roster needs change—the market's 99% implied probability of him staying suggests traders view such a scenario as highly unlikely. The low probability also reflects the general difficulty of predicting player trades in the NFL, where contracts and team dynamics can shift rapidly, but for now, the data points to continuity.