Despite a significant volume of $418,000 wagered on Polymarket, the consensus among traders is absolute: wide receiver Alec Pierce will not be traded. The market assigns a 0% probability to a trade occurring by the resolution date of July 22, 2026, reflecting a near-universal expectation that the Indianapolis Colts will retain the 2022 second-round pick. No data is available from Kalshi or Manifold, limiting cross-platform analysis, but the Polymarket figure alone suggests strong conviction among participants.
The lack of any news headlines or trade rumors further reinforces the market's stance. Without external catalysts—such as contract disputes, performance declines, or roster moves—the probability is unlikely to shift. Pierce, who has shown flashes of potential but inconsistent production, remains a depth piece for the Colts, and no team has signaled interest in acquiring him via trade.
Traders appear to be betting on inertia: in the absence of compelling reasons to move Pierce, the expected outcome is that he stays put. The 0% probability, while extreme, aligns with the quiet off-season for the player and the team's apparent satisfaction with their receiving corps. Should a surprise headline emerge—such as a trade demand or a team expressing interest—the odds could spike, but for now, the market sees no path to a deal.