Despite the lack of any recent news or trade rumors, prediction market participants are expressing near-total certainty that Alec Pierce will remain with the Colts through the resolution date of July 22, 2026. The Polymarket contract, which has attracted $418,000 in trading volume, shows a 0% probability of a trade occurring, reflecting a consensus that the third-year receiver is not a likely trade candidate. No other prediction platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—offer contracts on this event, making Polymarket the sole source of market-based expectations. The absence of any external news flow, such as trade demands, contract disputes, or team rebuilding signals, reinforces the market's view. Traders appear to be pricing in Pierce's role as a depth receiver on a team with no immediate incentive to move him, though the complete lack of probability movement suggests the market sees no catalysts for change.
Alec Pierce Trade Expected to Remain Unlikely Through 2026 (100% probability)
Tuesday, July 14, 2026Resolves: July 22, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
0%
0%
Average
Average
$418K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Polymarket traders see a 0% chance that Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce will be traded by July 2026, with $418,000 in volume backing the status quo across the platform.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to Polymarket, which shows a 0% probability with high volume; no cross-platform comparison is possible. The market's extreme certainty may reflect a lack of interest in betting on the 'yes' side rather than genuine conviction.
