The odds of a public confirmation between social media influencer Alix Earle and retired NFL quarterback Tom Brady remain extremely low, with Polymarket traders assigning just a 1% chance that the pair will announce a relationship by the end of June 2026. The market, which has attracted only $1,000 in volume, reflects a near-consensus view that such a development is highly unlikely. No other prediction platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—currently offer contracts on this event, limiting the breadth of market data. The lack of any recent news headlines or public statements from either party further reinforces the expectation that no confirmation will materialize. Without a clear catalyst, the odds are expected to remain heavily skewed against a relationship announcement in the near term.
Alix Earle and Tom Brady Expected to Avoid Confirming Relationship by June 30 (99% probability)
Friday, June 12, 2026Resolves: June 30, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
1%
1%
Average
Average
$1K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Prediction market traders give a 99% probability that Alix Earle and Tom Brady will not confirm a relationship by June 30, 2026, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to Polymarket with low volume ($1K), making the probability less robust; no cross-platform verification available.
