Polymarket traders are overwhelmingly betting that the two leading AI startups, Anthropic and OpenAI, will surpass Meta's market capitalization by the end of June next year. The contract, which resolves on July 1, 2026, shows a 99% probability, reflecting a consensus that the generative AI boom will continue to inflate valuations for private firms while Meta faces headwinds from its metaverse pivot and regulatory scrutiny.
However, the data comes with significant caveats. Only Polymarket offers a market for this event, with a modest $15,000 in volume, and no corresponding contracts exist on Kalshi or Manifold. This lack of cross-platform validation means the 99% figure may overstate conviction, as thin liquidity can amplify extreme probabilities. No specific news headlines were identified to explain the current odds, suggesting the market is driven by longer-term trends rather than recent events.
The implied near-certainty is striking given the volatility of AI valuations. Anthropic has raised over $7 billion at a $18.4 billion valuation, while OpenAI's latest round valued it at $80 billion. Meta, by contrast, trades at roughly $1.2 trillion market cap. For the AI firms to win, their combined valuation would need to exceed Meta's, a scenario that seems plausible only if Meta's stock declines sharply or the startups see massive new funding rounds.