Traders on Kalshi are unanimously betting that Argentina's monthly inflation rate will surpass the 2% mark, with the contract pricing at 0% for the opposite outcome—meaning a 100% chance of inflation above that threshold. The market, while thin with only $15.05 in volume, reflects a stark consensus among participants that the country's persistent price pressures remain entrenched. No comparable contracts exist on Polymarket or Manifold, limiting cross-platform validation. The lack of recent news headlines specific to this event suggests the probability is driven by broader macroeconomic trends rather than a single catalyst. Argentina has struggled with inflation rates exceeding 100% annually in recent years, making a monthly figure above 2% a low bar that markets see as virtually certain.
Argentina Monthly Inflation Expected to Exceed 2% Threshold (100% probability)
Wednesday, July 29, 2026Resolves: August 13, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
0%
Polymarket
—
0%
Average
Average
$0K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Prediction markets indicate a 100% probability that Argentina's month-over-month inflation will exceed 2% in the specified month, based on Kalshi data with $15.05 in volume, though no other platforms track this event.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to a single platform with low volume, reducing reliability; no cross-platform comparison available.
