Polymarket traders are overwhelmingly betting that Bitcoin will fail to breach the $66,000 threshold by the end of June, assigning just a 1% probability to the event. The $11,000 in volume on the platform suggests a concentrated, albeit small, pool of bearish conviction. No data is available from Kalshi or Manifold for this event, leaving Polymarket as the sole source of market-based forecasts.
The bearish outlook persists even after a sharp price spike on May 29, when Bitcoin surged following news that former President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz blockade would be lifted, as reported by CoinGape. The move, which typically boosts risk assets by easing energy supply fears, appears to have been dismissed by prediction market participants as a temporary rally rather than a sustained trend reversal.
Analysts note that the 99% implied probability of Bitcoin staying below $66,000 reflects deep skepticism about the cryptocurrency's near-term recovery, with traders likely pricing in headwinds from regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic pressures. The lack of cross-platform data limits the ability to gauge consensus, but Polymarket's odds have remained stable since the news broke, suggesting no shift in expectations.