Polymarket's $1.1 million contract, the sole platform tracking this event, shows a 0% probability that Bitcoin will hit $80,000 by the end of June. This reflects a market consensus that the cryptocurrency will remain below that threshold, with no other platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—offering contracts to cross-check the forecast. The absence of any positive probability suggests traders view a surge to $80,000 as virtually impossible within the current timeframe, given the lack of bullish catalysts or market momentum. No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow to explain the static odds, which have held at zero since the contract opened. The data underscores a bearish outlook for Bitcoin's near-term price action, with traders pricing in a ceiling well below the $80,000 mark.
Bitcoin Expected to Stay Below $80,000 in June (100% probability)
Friday, June 26, 2026Resolves: July 1, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
0%
0%
Average
Average
$1.1M
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Polymarket traders see a 0% chance that Bitcoin will reach $80,000 in June, effectively ruling out a six-figure milestone this month, according to the only prediction market with data on the event.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to Polymarket, which has $1.1M in volume, providing moderate reliability; no cross-platform verification is available.
