The speculation over who will succeed Daniel Craig as James Bond continues to swirl, but prediction markets have delivered a clear verdict on one candidate: Callum Turner. On Polymarket, the only platform tracking this specific outcome, traders assign the actor a 1% probability of being named the next 007. With $169,000 in volume, the market reflects a near-consensus that Turner, known for his roles in *Fantastic Beasts* and *The Capture*, is not in the running.
No external news triggers were identified in today's news flow to explain this low probability, suggesting the market's assessment is based on broader industry chatter and betting patterns rather than a specific event. The 99% implied chance that Turner will not be cast leaves room for other contenders, such as Aaron Taylor-Johnson or Idris Elba, who have been more frequently linked to the role in media reports.
While Polymarket provides the sole data point, the lack of coverage on Kalshi and Manifold limits cross-platform comparison. The market's high volume indicates active trader interest, but the extreme probability skew suggests little uncertainty among participants. As the search for the next Bond continues, Turner's odds appear firmly anchored at the bottom of the pack.