Despite swirling fan speculation, Polymarket traders see Callum Turner as a long shot to succeed Daniel Craig as 007. The market, which has seen $161K in volume, assigns the 'The Boys in the Boat' star only a 13% probability of being announced as the next James Bond by June 2026. No other prediction platforms currently track this specific outcome, leaving Polymarket as the sole source of market-based sentiment. The 87% expectation that Turner will not be cast reflects a broad field of rumored contenders, including Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Idris Elba, though no single alternative has yet dominated the betting. Without any recent news headlines to drive the odds, the market appears to be pricing in general uncertainty rather than a specific event or leak.
Callum Turner Expected to Miss Out on James Bond Role (87% probability)
Thursday, June 11, 2026Resolves: June 30, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
13%
13%
Average
Average
$161K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Prediction markets give Callum Turner just a 13% chance of being named the next James Bond, with Polymarket traders betting heavily against the British actor landing the iconic role.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to Polymarket; no cross-platform comparison is possible, and the market is relatively illiquid for a high-profile casting decision.
