Traders on Polymarket, the only prediction platform currently offering a market on the next James Bond casting, see a 94% probability that Callum Turner will not be chosen as the iconic spy. The market, which has attracted $166,000 in trading volume, reflects a strong consensus that the British actor is unlikely to succeed Daniel Craig. No specific external trigger has been identified in today's news flow to explain the low odds, suggesting the market is driven by broader speculation and the lack of any official announcements from the franchise's producers. The absence of data from Kalshi and Manifold limits cross-platform comparison, but Polymarket's volume indicates active interest among bettors. The 6% probability places Turner as a long shot in a field that has included other rumored candidates like Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Henry Cavill, though no direct comparisons are available on this platform.
Callum Turner Expected to Miss Out on James Bond Role (94% probability)
Tuesday, June 23, 2026Resolves: June 30, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
6%
6%
Average
Average
$166K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Prediction markets give actor Callum Turner a mere 6% chance of being named the next James Bond, according to Polymarket data, with no other platforms tracking the event.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to a single platform (Polymarket), which may not capture the full range of market sentiment; no cross-platform verification is possible.
