Prediction markets are signaling skepticism about Canva's ability to secure the second-highest private market valuation by the end of July. On Kalshi, where $46,000 in contracts have been traded, the probability stands at 18%, while Polymarket, with $365 in volume, shows a 0% chance. The absence of Manifold data and the wide divergence between the two platforms—Polymarket's zero suggests extreme doubt—underscores a lack of confidence among forecasters. No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow to explain the low odds, but the data points to a market expectation that Canva will not surpass rivals like SpaceX or ByteDance in the private valuation rankings. The 18% figure on Kalshi implies a roughly one-in-five chance, but the Polymarket reading of 0% indicates that some traders see the outcome as virtually impossible, creating a notable spread of 18 percentage points. This discrepancy may reflect differences in market liquidity or participant interpretation of the resolution criteria, but the overall trend is clear: markets expect Canva to fall short.
Canva Expected to Fall Short of Second-Highest Private Valuation by July 31 (82% probability)
Monday, July 20, 2026Resolves: August 1, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
18%
Polymarket
0%
9%
Average
Average
N/A
Volume
Volume
18%
Spread
Spread
Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket give Canva an 18% chance of claiming the second-highest private market valuation by July 31, with Polymarket showing a 0% probability, reflecting broad consensus that the design software firm will not reach that milestone.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to two platforms, with Polymarket showing zero volume and Kalshi providing the only meaningful liquidity; Manifold has no data, reducing overall reliability.
