Polymarket traders have priced a 0% chance that ChatGPT will experience fewer than three outages in July 2026, implying a 100% probability of at least three service disruptions during the month. The contract has attracted $13,000 in volume, indicating modest but focused interest in the outcome. No data is available from Kalshi or Manifold, making Polymarket the sole source for this forecast.
The bet reflects a widespread expectation of continued reliability challenges for the AI platform, which has faced periodic outages in recent years. Without specific news headlines to explain the shift, the market's confidence appears to stem from historical patterns and ongoing concerns about infrastructure stability. Traders see the outcome as a near-certainty, with no room for a scenario where outages fall below three.
The resolution date of July 31, 2026, leaves ample time for developments that could alter the odds, but for now, the market is unanimous in its expectation of frequent service interruptions.