Traders on Polymarket have priced Croatia's World Cup hopes at zero, reflecting a consensus that the 2018 runners-up and 2022 bronze medalists will not capture their first title in 2026. The market, which has attracted $88 million in volume, shows no probability of a Croatian victory, a stark contrast to the team's recent deep tournament runs.
Croatia, led by veteran captain Luka Modrić, advanced to the Round of 32 after a group stage that saw them secure a spot in the knockout phase, as reported by SBS Australia on June 28. Manager Zlatko Dalić praised Modrić as 'my right hand on the pitch' in comments to Devdiscourse and The Tribune on June 23, underscoring the team's reliance on the 40-year-old midfielder. However, markets see the squad as lacking the depth to overcome favorites like Brazil, France, or Argentina, who dominate the odds.
No specific external trigger for the 0% probability was identified in today's news flow, though the team's aging core and tough knockout bracket may factor into trader sentiment. The absence of data from Kalshi or Manifold limits cross-platform comparison, but Polymarket's high volume suggests a liquid and informed market.