Traders on Kalshi have priced in a 0% chance that Dallas will hit a designated high temperature on June 13, 2026, effectively forecasting that the city will stay below that mark. With $2,000 in volume, the market reflects a strong consensus among participants, though no other platforms—such as Polymarket or Manifold—offer contracts on this specific outcome, limiting cross-platform verification. The absence of any probability above zero suggests that weather models or seasonal norms are guiding expectations, rather than any sudden climatic event. No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow, as no relevant headlines were available to explain the market's stance. This near-certain forecast aligns with typical June temperatures in Dallas, which historically average highs in the low 90s Fahrenheit, though the exact threshold remains unspecified in the contract details.
Dallas Expected to Avoid Record-Breaking Heat on June 13 (100% probability)
Friday, June 12, 2026Resolves: June 13, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
0%
Polymarket
—
0%
Average
Average
$2K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Prediction markets indicate a 100% probability that Dallas will not reach a specified maximum temperature threshold on June 13, 2026, based on data from Kalshi, the sole platform tracking this event.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to Kalshi with low volume ($2K) and no coverage on Polymarket or Manifold, reducing reliability for broad market sentiment.
