Traders on Polymarket are betting heavily against a delay in the release of GPT-5.6, assigning just a 12% chance that the model will not be available by the June 28, 2026 deadline. The market, which has attracted $29,000 in volume, reflects a consensus that OpenAI will meet its timeline, despite the company's history of pushing back major releases. No data is available from Kalshi or Manifold, making Polymarket the sole source for this forecast. The absence of recent news headlines leaves the market's confidence unexplained, but the high probability suggests traders see few obstacles—such as regulatory hurdles or technical setbacks—that could derail the launch. With an 88% expectation of on-time delivery, the implied odds of a delay are roughly 1 in 8, a level that typically indicates a low-risk event in prediction market terms.