According to data from Polymarket, the only major prediction platform tracking this event, traders see a 97% chance that GPT-5.6 will not be released by the June 28, 2026, deadline. The market has attracted $275,000 in volume, indicating significant interest despite the lack of coverage on other platforms like Kalshi and Manifold. The near-certain probability suggests that forecasters expect OpenAI to miss its target, likely due to the complexity of developing advanced AI models and the company's history of delayed releases. No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow, as no relevant headlines were available. The high confidence in a delay may stem from broader industry patterns: previous GPT iterations have faced setbacks, and the technical challenges of scaling AI capabilities continue to mount. Without competing data from other platforms, the Polymarket figure stands as the sole market signal, though its high volume lends credibility to the forecast.