Traders on Polymarket see the release of GPT-6 within the next two years as a near-certainty not to happen, assigning just a 1% probability to the event. The market, which has attracted $217,000 in bets, reflects a strong consensus that OpenAI's next major model will not debut by the mid-2026 deadline.
No other prediction platforms—such as Kalshi or Manifold—currently offer contracts on this specific question, making Polymarket the sole source of market-based expectations. The absence of cross-platform data limits the ability to gauge broader trader sentiment, but the low probability suggests skepticism about the timeline given the complexity of developing advanced AI systems.
No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow to explain the current odds, which have remained stable near 1% since the market opened. The lack of recent announcements from OpenAI regarding GPT-6's development cycle may contribute to the bearish outlook among forecasters.