Traders on Polymarket see a 97% probability that GPT-Bidi-1, a speculated next-generation language model, will not be released by the mid-2026 deadline. The low volume of just $2,000 in bets suggests limited market engagement, possibly reflecting the speculative nature of the event or a lack of concrete information from OpenAI. No other prediction platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—cover this contract, leaving Polymarket as the sole source of probabilistic insight. The absence of recent news headlines or official announcements from OpenAI further contributes to the market's skepticism, as no external triggers have shifted the odds. The 3% probability implies that traders view a release within the timeframe as a long shot, likely contingent on unexpected breakthroughs or strategic pivots by the company.
GPT-Bidi-1 Release by June 2026 Seen as Unlikely, Traders Say (3% probability)
Thursday, July 2, 2026Resolves: July 31, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
3%
3%
Average
Average
$2K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Prediction markets give a mere 3% chance that OpenAI will release GPT-Bidi-1 by June 30, 2026, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to a single platform (Polymarket) with low volume, reducing reliability; no cross-platform comparison is possible.
