Traders on Polymarket, the only major prediction platform covering this casting speculation, unanimously assign a zero percent probability to Henry Cavill being named the next 007 by mid-2026. The market has attracted $455,000 in volume, indicating significant interest despite the absolute consensus against the actor's selection. No other platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—currently offer contracts on this specific outcome, leaving Polymarket as the sole source of probabilistic insight. The 100% expectation that Cavill will not be chosen reflects a market that has fully priced in alternative candidates, though no specific news headlines have emerged to trigger this certainty. The lack of any positive probability suggests traders view Cavill's casting as effectively ruled out, perhaps due to industry rumors or the actor's other commitments, though the data does not specify a cause.
Henry Cavill Expected to Be Passed Over for James Bond Role (100% probability)
Thursday, June 11, 2026Resolves: June 30, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
0%
0%
Average
Average
$455K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Prediction markets give Henry Cavill a 0% chance of being announced as the next James Bond by June 2026, according to Polymarket data, with no other platforms tracking the event.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to Polymarket alone, with no cross-platform verification; the 0% probability is absolute but based on a single market.
