The betting data is unambiguous: across the only active prediction market tracking this event, Polymarket, the contract for Henry Cavill being named the next 007 has traded at 0% for weeks, with $457,000 in volume reinforcing the consensus. No other major platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—offer contracts on this specific outcome, leaving Polymarket as the sole source of market intelligence. The zero-percent probability suggests traders have concluded that Cavill, despite his popularity and prior audition for the role, is not in contention. Without any recent news headlines to explain the shift, the market appears to reflect a long-standing belief that the franchise is looking elsewhere, possibly toward younger or less established actors. The lack of any positive movement in the contract price indicates that no credible rumors or studio leaks have surfaced to challenge this view.
Henry Cavill Expected to Be Passed Over for James Bond Role (99% probability)
Wednesday, June 24, 2026Resolves: June 30, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
0%
0%
Average
Average
$457K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Despite persistent fan speculation, prediction markets give Henry Cavill virtually no chance of being announced as the next James Bond, with Polymarket traders placing a 0% probability on the casting as of today.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to Polymarket, which has high volume but no cross-platform verification; the 0% probability is unusually decisive for a speculative entertainment market.
