According to the sole prediction market tracking this event, Kalshi, forecasters see a low 18% chance that the holiday period's minimum temperature will set a new record low. This implies an 82% expectation that temperatures will remain above the historical threshold. The market's thin volume of just $3,000 suggests limited participation, which may reduce the reliability of the probability estimate. No other major platforms—Polymarket or Manifold—offer contracts on this specific outcome, leaving Kalshi as the sole data source. Without any recent news headlines tied to weather patterns or climate anomalies, the current odds appear to reflect baseline seasonal expectations rather than any specific forecast shift.