Traders on Polymarket, the only prediction market currently covering the 2026 NHL Draft's first overall pick, assign Ilya Morozov a mere 1% probability of being selected first. With only $7,000 in volume, the market is thin, but the consensus is clear: the Russian prospect is not expected to hear his name called first on draft night.
No specific news headlines have emerged to explain this low probability, suggesting the market's assessment is based on broader scouting reports and draft rankings rather than a recent event. The absence of data from Kalshi and Manifold limits cross-platform comparison, but Polymarket's single-digit odds reflect a strong expectation that another player will top the draft board.
Given the early stage of the 2026 draft cycle—resolving in June 2026—the odds could shift significantly as the season progresses and prospect rankings evolve. For now, however, the market sees Morozov as a long shot for the top spot.