The James Bond casting rumor mill has churned for months, with James Norton frequently cited as a frontrunner to succeed Daniel Craig. However, Polymarket traders have priced the likelihood at zero, suggesting that either the market sees Norton as an unlikely choice or that the decision process remains too opaque to bet on. With $193K in volume on Polymarket, the market reflects a firm consensus: Norton is not expected to be the next 007. No other prediction platforms provide data on this specific event, limiting cross-platform analysis. The absence of news headlines or official announcements from Eon Productions leaves the market driven entirely by trader sentiment and speculation. The 0% probability may also reflect the market's structure, where traders can only bet on Norton specifically, not on other candidates, potentially skewing the odds.
James Norton Expected to Be Next James Bond, but Markets Give 0% Chance (0% probability)
Sunday, June 21, 2026Resolves: June 30, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
0%
0%
Average
Average
$193K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Despite widespread speculation that actor James Norton will be named the next James Bond, prediction markets on Polymarket give the British star a 0% chance of landing the iconic role by June 2026, with no data available on Kalshi or Manifold.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to Polymarket, which shows a strong consensus but may not capture broader sentiment; no other platforms cover this event.
