Traders on Polymarket, the only platform currently tracking this event, see a 99% probability that Jia Yueting will not set foot in mainland China before the end of June. The market, which has attracted $24,000 in volume, suggests that the entrepreneur—who has been living in the United States since 2017—faces insurmountable obstacles to a return. Jia, who owes billions to creditors and is under investigation by Chinese regulators, has repeatedly delayed his return, citing the need to secure funding for his electric vehicle startup, Faraday Future. No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow to explain the current odds, but the persistent low probability reflects a consensus that his legal and financial entanglements make a near-term return highly unlikely. The lack of data from other platforms like Kalshi or Manifold limits cross-validation, but Polymarket's single-source signal is clear: markets expect Jia to remain abroad.