Traders on Polymarket have effectively ruled out Josh O'Connor as the next James Bond, assigning a 0% probability to the actor being named as the iconic spy by mid-2026. The market, which has seen $72,000 in volume, reflects a consensus that O'Connor—known for his role in 'The Crown'—is not in contention for the role, though no specific casting announcements or denials have been made. The lack of any positive probability suggests that market participants see no credible evidence linking O'Connor to the franchise, or that other candidates are far more likely.
No other prediction platforms, including Kalshi or Manifold, currently track this specific event, limiting the cross-platform analysis. The 0% reading on Polymarket is a strong signal of market certainty, but it does not preclude future shifts if new information emerges, such as casting rumors or official statements from the Bond producers. The absence of news headlines related to O'Connor's candidacy further supports the market's view that he is not a serious contender.
The James Bond casting process remains highly secretive, with producers typically making announcements years in advance. The current market data suggests that if a successor to Daniel Craig is named by 2026, it will not be Josh O'Connor, though the identity of the next Bond remains an open question with no clear frontrunner in prediction markets.