The race to succeed Daniel Craig as James Bond has long been a subject of intense public fascination, but prediction markets are offering a stark verdict on one candidate. On Polymarket, the only platform tracking the question, traders have assigned a 0% probability to British actor Josh O'Connor being announced as the next 007. With $74,000 in volume, the market reflects a near-unanimous consensus that the 'Challengers' star will not don the tuxedo.
No other prediction platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—currently list contracts on this specific outcome, leaving Polymarket as the sole data source. The lack of cross-platform comparison limits the depth of analysis, but the zero probability on Polymarket suggests traders view O'Connor's candidacy as a non-starter. This contrasts with broader speculation in entertainment circles, where O'Connor's name has occasionally surfaced alongside other contenders like Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Idris Elba.
The market's confidence may stem from the secretive nature of Bond casting decisions, which are controlled by producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson. Without any official announcements or credible leaks, traders appear to be betting against any candidate until concrete evidence emerges. The absence of recent news headlines further reinforces the uncertainty, leaving the field wide open for other possibilities.