Despite swirling fan speculation and online chatter, prediction markets are resoundingly clear: Josh O'Connor will not be the next 007. On Polymarket, the only platform with active trading on this question, the contract has traded at 0% since its inception, with no buyers willing to bet on the actor's casting. The $72,000 in volume reflects near-unanimous consensus that the 'Challengers' and 'The Crown' star is not in the running for the iconic role.
No other prediction platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—offer contracts on this specific outcome, limiting cross-platform comparison. However, the Polymarket data is unambiguous: traders see a 100% probability that O'Connor will not be named Bond by the mid-2026 deadline. The lack of any positive movement suggests that either the actor has not been approached, or that the casting process is focused elsewhere.
Without any recent news headlines to explain the odds, the market appears to be driven by broader industry speculation and the absence of credible reports linking O'Connor to the role. The next Bond remains a closely guarded secret, but the betting public has firmly ruled out this candidate.