Traders on Polymarket see a 99% probability that the Manchester United and England forward will fail to reach the three-goal mark within the specified timeframe, with just $1,000 in volume wagered on the contract. The low liquidity and single-platform coverage suggest limited market depth, but the consensus is stark: Rashford is not expected to hit that tally. No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow to explain the odds, which have remained steady since the market opened. The event's resolution date in mid-2026 leaves ample time for shifts, but current sentiment is heavily skewed against the striker exceeding two goals.
Marcus Rashford Expected to Score Fewer Than 3 Goals by July 2026 (99% probability)
Saturday, July 18, 2026Resolves: July 18, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
1%
1%
Average
Average
$1K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Prediction markets give Marcus Rashford a mere 1% chance of scoring three or more goals by July 18, 2026, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking this event.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to Polymarket with low volume; no cross-platform comparison available, so the probability should be treated as indicative rather than robust.