The prospect of Mohamed Salah joining Major League Soccer appears remote, based on current prediction market data. On Polymarket, the sole platform tracking this event, traders give just a 6% probability that the Egyptian forward will be on an MLS roster by September 1, 2026. This translates to a 94% expectation that he will remain outside the league, whether by staying in Europe, moving to another global league, or retiring.
No comparable markets exist on Kalshi or Manifold, leaving Polymarket as the single source of probabilistic insight. The modest trading volume of roughly $9,000 suggests limited market depth, which may amplify uncertainty. Still, the low probability aligns with Salah's current standing as a top-tier player in Europe's elite competitions, where he continues to perform at a high level for Liverpool.
Without any recent news headlines to anchor the market, the 6% figure likely reflects baseline assumptions about player movement rather than a reaction to a specific development. Traders may be weighing factors such as Salah's age (he will be 34 by the resolution date), his career ambitions, and the financial allure of MLS, but the data offers no clear trigger for the current odds.
As the 2026 season approaches, the market will likely react to transfer windows, contract renewals, and any public statements from Salah or his representatives. For now, the expectation is clear: Salah is not headed to MLS, at least according to the traders who have put money on the question.