Traders on Polymarket see no chance of a formal secession vote in any state legislature before mid-2026, with the contract trading at 0% on $39,000 in volume. The market, which resolves to 'Yes' if any state legislature holds a vote on secession, has attracted limited interest, reflecting the political and legal barriers to such a move.
No other prediction platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—list contracts on this event, and no specific news headlines have driven the current odds. The consensus among the small pool of traders appears to be that secession remains a fringe idea in US politics, with no major state legislature expected to take it up in the near term.
The lack of volume and platform coverage suggests the market is thin, but the unanimous 0% probability indicates strong conviction that secession votes are not on the horizon. Any shift would likely require a dramatic change in political discourse or a high-profile legislative proposal.