Traders on Polymarket are betting heavily against OpenAI reaching a valuation of $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion at the close of its first day of trading, with the contract pricing a 95% probability that the AI giant will land below that range. The market, which has attracted over half a million dollars in volume, reflects skepticism about the company's ability to sustain its current growth trajectory amid rising competition and regulatory scrutiny.
No other prediction platforms currently offer contracts on this specific outcome, making Polymarket the sole source of probabilistic insight. The lack of cross-platform data limits the ability to gauge consensus, but the single-market signal is unambiguous: traders see OpenAI's IPO valuation as likely to disappoint relative to the loftiest expectations.
No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow to explain the low probability. The market's bearish stance may stem from broader concerns about AI sector valuations and the timing of OpenAI's potential public offering, which is not expected until at least mid-2026.