The odds are heavily stacked against OpenAI achieving a market cap between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion on its IPO day, with Polymarket traders assigning just a 5% probability to that outcome. The $1.25 trillion-to-$1.5 trillion range represents a significant premium over current private valuations for the artificial intelligence company, which has been valued at around $80 billion in secondary markets. The 95% expectation of a lower valuation reflects caution among forecasters about the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory amid rising competition from rivals like Anthropic and Google DeepMind, as well as regulatory scrutiny over AI safety and data privacy. No other prediction platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—currently offer contracts on this specific event, making Polymarket the sole source of market-based probabilities. The $514,000 in volume suggests moderate liquidity, though the lack of cross-platform data limits the ability to gauge consensus or divergence among traders.
OpenAI IPO Expected to Fall Short of $1.25 Trillion Valuation on First Day (95% probability)
Sunday, June 14, 2026Resolves: June 30, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
5%
5%
Average
Average
$514K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Prediction market traders see a 95% chance that OpenAI's market capitalization will remain below $1.25 trillion at the close of its initial public offering day, according to Polymarket data with $514,000 in volume.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to Polymarket alone; no cross-platform verification is available, and the volume is moderate, so the probability should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.