The prediction market, which has seen $518,000 in trading volume, overwhelmingly expects OpenAI's market cap to land below $1.25 trillion when it goes public. The 3% probability reflects deep skepticism among forecasters that the company can achieve a valuation in that specific bracket, even as it continues to dominate the generative AI space. No other prediction platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—currently offer contracts on this event, making Polymarket the sole source of market-based sentiment. The lack of recent news headlines provides no clear external trigger for the low odds, suggesting the market's view is driven by broader assessments of OpenAI's growth trajectory and the competitive landscape. With a resolution date of June 30, 2026, traders have ample time to adjust their positions as the IPO approaches and new information emerges.