According to the only active prediction market tracking this event, Polymarket, participants have priced in a 13% likelihood that OpenAI's market cap lands in the $1T–$1.25T range on its IPO day, set for June 30, 2026. With $209,000 in volume, the market reflects a clear consensus that the company's valuation will fall short of the trillion-dollar mark, despite its dominant position in generative AI. The absence of data from Kalshi and Manifold limits cross-platform comparison, but Polymarket's liquidity suggests a meaningful signal. No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow to explain the current probability, which has remained stable over recent weeks. Traders appear to be weighing factors such as regulatory scrutiny, competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic and Google, and the uncertain path to profitability for OpenAI's capital-intensive business model. The 87% implied probability of a sub-$1T valuation indicates that market participants see a significant gap between the company's private-market hype and public-market realities.