The consensus among forecasters on Polymarket, the only major prediction platform tracking this specific outcome, is that OpenAI's highly anticipated initial public offering will likely result in a valuation under $1.25 trillion. With $515,000 in volume riding on the contract, traders have priced in a 95% probability that the company's market cap falls short of the $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion bracket at the close of its first trading day. This reflects a cautious outlook on the AI firm's near-term valuation, despite its dominant position in generative AI and ongoing revenue growth. No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow to explain the current odds, which have remained stable over recent weeks. The absence of data from Kalshi and Manifold limits cross-platform comparison, but Polymarket's relatively high liquidity lends weight to the signal.
OpenAI IPO Expected to Value Company Below $1.25 Trillion, Markets Suggest (95% probability)
Tuesday, June 16, 2026Resolves: June 30, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
5%
5%
Average
Average
$515K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Prediction market traders on Polymarket give OpenAI only a 5% chance of achieving a market capitalization between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion on its IPO day, suggesting the AI giant is widely expected to debut below that range.
Confidence Note: Data is based solely on Polymarket, which has substantial volume ($515K) for this contract, but the lack of corroboration from Kalshi or Manifold means the probability should be interpreted with some caution.