Polymarket traders are betting heavily against OpenAI achieving a market cap between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion on its first day of trading, with the contract showing just a 12% probability of that outcome as of Wednesday. The $520,000 in volume on the market reflects significant interest in the question, though no other prediction platforms currently offer contracts on the same event, limiting cross-platform comparison.
The low probability comes amid a broader recalibration of expectations for AI company valuations, as investors weigh the costs of scaling large language models and the pace of revenue growth against earlier hype. While OpenAI has not yet set a firm IPO date, the market's skepticism suggests that even a company at the forefront of generative AI may face headwinds in commanding a valuation above $1.25 trillion on day one.
No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow to explain the current probability level, which has remained relatively stable over the past week. The absence of recent headlines on OpenAI's financial performance or IPO plans leaves traders relying on broader market sentiment and technical analysis of the AI sector.