The consensus among forecasters on Polymarket is clear: OpenAI's highly anticipated initial public offering is unlikely to land in the $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion valuation bracket. With $508,000 in volume wagered on the outcome, the market assigns just a 6% probability to the company reaching that threshold on its first day of trading.
While no other prediction platforms—such as Kalshi or Manifold—currently offer contracts on this specific question, Polymarket's liquidity suggests active interest among traders. The absence of competing data limits cross-platform comparison, but the single-market signal is unambiguous: the expected valuation is below $1.25 trillion.
No specific external trigger for this probability was identified in today's news flow, leaving the market's stance as a reflection of broader sentiment around OpenAI's growth trajectory and the tech IPO landscape. The company's private valuation has fluctuated in recent years, but traders appear skeptical that a public debut will immediately push it into the trillion-dollar-plus club.