Traders on Polymarket and Manifold are betting heavily against OpenAI achieving a market cap between $750 billion and $1 trillion at the close of its first trading day. With a 91% probability assigned to the outcome that the company's valuation lands below $750 billion, the consensus reflects skepticism about the AI firm's near-term public market prospects.
Polymarket shows a 9% chance of the valuation landing within the specified range, with $152,000 in volume wagered on the question. Manifold traders echo this sentiment, also pricing the probability at 9% across 35 participants. The alignment between the two platforms suggests a strong market consensus, though the absence of Kalshi data limits cross-platform comparison.
No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow to explain the current odds. The market's view may reflect broader uncertainty around AI company valuations and the timing of OpenAI's potential IPO, which has a resolution date of June 30, 2026.