Polymarket traders are betting heavily against OpenAI hitting a $875 billion valuation by mid-2026, with the contract showing just a 6% probability of the milestone being achieved. The market, which has seen $24,000 in volume, suggests that despite OpenAI's dominant position in generative AI, investors expect its valuation to remain below that threshold over the next 18 months.
No other prediction platforms—such as Kalshi or Manifold—currently offer contracts on this specific event, limiting cross-platform comparison. The absence of news headlines directly tied to the event makes it difficult to pinpoint a catalyst for the low probability, but the market's consensus points to a cautious outlook on AI company valuations amid broader tech sector uncertainty.
The $875 billion target represents a significant premium over OpenAI's last reported valuation of around $80 billion in early 2024, and traders appear to view such a rapid ascent as unlikely. Without additional data from other markets, the Polymarket figure stands as the primary signal, though its relatively low volume suggests limited liquidity and potential for volatility.