Traders on Kalshi are overwhelmingly betting that President RCP's approval rating, as tracked by RealClearPolitics (RCP), will not reach the 50% mark this week. The market, which has seen $19,000 in volume, assigns a mere 1% probability to the president achieving a majority approval rating, reflecting sustained public sentiment challenges. No data is available from Polymarket or Manifold for this event, limiting cross-platform comparison. The lack of recent news headlines provides no specific external trigger for the current odds, suggesting the market is pricing in persistent trends rather than a sudden shift. With the resolution date set for June 26, 2026, the consensus among Kalshi participants is that the approval rating will remain in its current range, likely below the 50% threshold that has eluded the administration for months.
President RCP Approval Rating Expected to Stay Below 50% This Week (99% probability)
Thursday, June 25, 2026Resolves: June 26, 2026
Market Consensus
Kalshi
1%
Polymarket
—
1%
Average
Average
$19K
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Prediction markets on Kalshi give a 99% probability that President RCP's approval rating will remain below 50% this week, with only a 1% chance of crossing that threshold, based on $19,000 in trading volume.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to Kalshi with $19K in volume; no cross-platform verification is possible, so confidence is moderate.
