Traders on Polymarket see a clear, if modest, advantage for Republicans in the 2026 Texas Senate race, with a 59% probability assigned to a GOP victory. This expectation follows a contentious Republican primary runoff in which Attorney General Ken Paxton secured the nomination after a last-minute endorsement from former President Donald Trump, as reported by Livemint on May 27. The race now pits Paxton against Democratic nominee Talarico, and analysts suggest Paxton's strong base and Trump's backing make him a formidable candidate.
News coverage highlights both the GOP's internal dynamics and the general election landscape. NBC News reported on May 28 that Republicans are bracing for financial challenges after Paxton's win, while USA TODAY noted on May 27 that the outcome reflects the enduring influence of Trump's wing within the party. A Newsmax piece from May 26, citing even supporters of Senator John Cornyn, acknowledged Paxton's strength against Talarico. No specific external trigger for the current 59% probability was identified in today's news flow, though the primary results and subsequent analyses likely underpin market sentiment.
Only Polymarket has active trading on this event, with no data available from Kalshi or Manifold. The single-platform coverage limits cross-validation, but the $273K in volume suggests meaningful liquidity and trader interest. The 59% probability indicates a Republican edge, but the 41% chance for Democrats leaves the race competitive, with potential shifts tied to campaign developments and national political trends.