The only prediction market tracking this question, Manifold Markets, shows a consensus of 27 traders placing the probability at just 6%, implying a 94% expectation that the film will fail to reach the 45% threshold. This low confidence reflects a broader skepticism about the franchise's ability to recapture its earlier critical success, given the mixed reception of recent horror-comedy reboots. No other platforms—Kalshi or Polymarket—have listed this event, limiting the data to a single source but still providing a clear directional signal. Without any specific news headlines to explain the shift, the market appears to be pricing in a baseline assumption of poor reviews, possibly influenced by the track record of similar legacy reboots in the genre.
Scary Movie Expected to Fall Below 45% Rotten Tomatoes Score, Forecasters Say (94% probability)
Sunday, June 7, 2026Resolves: Invalid Date
Market Consensus
Kalshi
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Polymarket
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6%
Average
Average
N/A
Volume
Volume
N/A
Spread
Spread
Forecasters on Manifold Markets give the upcoming Scary Movie reboot a mere 6% chance of holding a Rotten Tomatoes score of 45% or higher, suggesting the film is widely expected to land in critical disfavor.
Confidence Note: Data is limited to a single platform (Manifold) with low volume, so the probability should be treated as indicative rather than robust.