The odds of the Seattle Seahawks drafting Brendan Sorsby in the 2026 NFL Supplemental Draft are heavily tilted against the move, according to data from two prediction platforms. Kalshi traders assign a 35% probability to the event, while Polymarket shows an even lower 3% chance, creating a stark 32-point spread that underscores significant disagreement or differing market dynamics. No data is available from Manifold, limiting cross-platform analysis.
The wide divergence between platforms may stem from low trading volumes—$91.40 on Kalshi and $98.45 on Polymarket—suggesting limited liquidity and potentially less reliable signals. The average probability across the two platforms is 19%, reinforcing the expectation that the Seahawks will pass on Sorsby. No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow to explain the odds, as no relevant headlines were available.
Sorsby, a quarterback who transferred from Indiana to Cincinnati, has shown flashes of potential but remains a fringe prospect for the supplemental draft. The Seahawks, who already have Geno Smith and Sam Howell under contract, may not see a pressing need to add another signal-caller through this unconventional route. The low probabilities reflect a market consensus that the team will prioritize other positions or wait for the regular draft.