The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, remains a flashpoint for geopolitical uncertainty. Kalshi's market, which has seen $648K in trading volume, shows an 18% chance that traffic will normalize by the resolution date of July 21, 2026. This low probability persists even as recent headlines suggest mixed progress: on June 18, The Economic Times reported that three Saudi oil tankers crossed the strait, but Israel simultaneously struck Lebanon, underscoring the fragile security environment. A June 14 Hindustan Times article noted that a US-Iran peace deal has raised hopes, but warned that shipping recovery may take time. Meanwhile, a May 28 Times Now update quoted US officials saying it's 'hard to say' when or if President Trump will sign a memorandum of understanding with Iran, and noted that the IDF has been ordered to seize 70% of Gaza—a development that further complicates regional stability. No other prediction platforms (Polymarket or Manifold) currently track this event, making Kalshi the sole source of probabilistic insight. The consensus among traders is that the combination of ongoing military actions, unresolved diplomatic negotiations, and logistical hurdles will prevent a return to normalcy within the next year.