Despite fan speculation and online chatter, prediction markets are resolute: Tom Holland will not be the next James Bond. On Polymarket, the only platform with active trading on this question, the contract has traded at 0% for weeks, reflecting near-universal skepticism among bettors. With $269,000 in volume, the market has seen no significant movement, indicating a strong consensus that the 28-year-old Spider-Man star is not in contention for the iconic role.
No external news headlines have emerged to shift the odds, and the lack of data from Kalshi or Manifold underscores the niche nature of this speculation. The 0% probability suggests traders view the casting as highly improbable, likely due to Holland's age, existing commitments to Marvel, and the traditional preference for older actors in the Bond franchise. The market's silence on alternative candidates leaves the question of who will succeed Daniel Craig wide open.