Despite persistent fan speculation and social media buzz, prediction markets are resolute: Tom Holland will not be the next 007. On Polymarket, the only platform with active trading on this question, the contract for Holland's casting sits at 0% probability, with over a quarter-million dollars wagered against the outcome. No other major prediction market—Kalshi or Manifold—lists a contract for this specific event, leaving Polymarket as the sole arbiter of market sentiment.
The zero-percent figure reflects a market consensus that Holland, best known for his role as Spider-Man in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, is not in serious contention for the iconic role. Traders appear to be betting on a more traditional choice, with names like Idris Elba and Henry Cavill often floated in fan circles, though no specific alternative contracts are available on Polymarket. The lack of any positive probability suggests that even a surprise announcement would be met with disbelief by the market.
No specific external trigger—such as a studio statement or credible leak—has been identified in today's news flow to explain the market's stance. The 0% probability may simply reflect the long odds of a younger, franchise-tied actor being cast in a role that typically goes to older, less commercially branded performers. With the resolution date set for June 30, 2026, the market has ample time to shift, but for now, the data is clear: Tom Holland is not the next James Bond.