Despite fan speculation and online buzz, prediction markets are resolute: Tom Holland will not be named the next James Bond. On Polymarket, the sole platform tracking this event, the contract for a Holland announcement has traded at 0% for months, with no buyers willing to bet on the actor taking over the iconic role. The $270K in volume suggests active interest, but all money is on the negative outcome—that Holland will not be the next 007.
No other prediction markets, such as Kalshi or Manifold, cover this event, limiting the data to a single source. Without any recent news headlines to explain the market's stance, the consensus appears to reflect a broader industry expectation that the next Bond will be an older, more established actor, or that the franchise is taking a different direction entirely. The 100% probability of Holland not being announced underscores a near-certainty among traders, though the lack of cross-platform data means this confidence is untested.
The resolution date of June 30, 2026, leaves ample time for shifts, but for now, the market sees no path to a Holland casting. Any change would likely require a major studio announcement or credible leak, neither of which has materialized.