The betting public has spoken, and it is not Tom Holland. On Polymarket, the only major prediction platform tracking this question, traders have placed over $271,000 in bets, with the contract for Holland as the next 007 trading at effectively zero. The market implies a near-certainty that the 28-year-old British actor will not be the next actor to portray Ian Fleming's iconic spy.
No other platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—have listed contracts on this specific question, making Polymarket the sole source of crowd-sourced intelligence. The absence of competing data limits cross-platform analysis, but the sheer volume of money on the 'No' side suggests strong conviction among traders. Without any recent news headlines to drive the odds, the market appears to reflect a consensus that Holland, best known for his role as Spider-Man, is not in serious contention for the role, which has been vacant since Daniel Craig's final outing in 'No Time to Die' (2021).
Speculation about the next Bond has included names like Idris Elba, Regé-Jean Page, and Aaron Taylor-Johnson, but none have been confirmed by Eon Productions. The market's verdict on Holland is clear: the odds are effectively zero, and traders are betting that the franchise will look elsewhere for its next leading man.